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Akwa United vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Akwa United
Akwa United
CANC
00:00
MFM
MFM
3/29/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 28Godswill Akpabio International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Akwa United61%
×Draw26%
MFM13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akwa United
1.52
MFM
0.55

Akwa United creates 176% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 61 away

creates per match

Akwa United
1.62
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Akwa United
0.61
MFM
1.41

finishing

Akwa United+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akwa United ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Akwa United or draw
87%
Akwa United or MFM
74%
Draw or MFM
39%

Winning margin

Akwa United wins by 2+
33%
MFM wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Akwa United 1+ goals
78%
Akwa United 2+ goals
45%
Akwa United 3+ goals
20%
MFM 1+ goals
42%
MFM 2+ goals
11%
MFM 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Akwa United (draw refunded)
82%
MFM (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akwa United at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akwa United attack 1.62 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

MFM attack 0.49 + Akwa United defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Akwa United scores more
61%
level
26%
MFM scores more
13%

Akwa United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Akwa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akwa United vs MFM — Match Preview

Akwa United face MFM on March 29, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akwa United host MFM at Godswill Akpabio International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.