Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MFM vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

MFM
MFM
FT
2 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
A. Najeem 30'
K. Adeniji 18'
12/22/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 10Teslim Balogun Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

MFM70%
×Draw22%
Adamawa United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MFM
1.75
Adamawa United
0.43

MFM creates 307% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 31 away

creates per match

MFM
1.16
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

MFM
0.63
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

MFM+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MFM ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

MFM or draw
92%
MFM or Adamawa United
78%
Draw or Adamawa United
30%

Winning margin

MFM wins by 2+
42%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

MFM 1+ goals
83%
MFM 2+ goals
52%
MFM 3+ goals
25%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
35%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
7%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

MFM (draw refunded)
89%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MFM at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 62 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MFM attack 1.16 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.75

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + MFM defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

MFM scores more
70%
level
22%
Adamawa United scores more
8%

MFM at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "MFM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Adeniji
30'
A. Najeem
45'
J. Abubakar
53'
A. Balogun← A. Balogun
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MFM vs Adamawa United

MFM beat Adamawa United 2-0 in NPFL on December 22, 2019.

Goals: K. Adeniji (18'), A. Najeem (30').

The match was played at Teslim Balogun Stadium in Lagos.