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Adamawa United vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
CANC
00:00
MFM
MFM
4/12/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 30Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United47%
×Draw31%
MFM22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.17
MFM
0.70

Adamawa United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 61 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
MFM
0.49

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
MFM
1.41

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
78%
Adamawa United or MFM
69%
Draw or MFM
53%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
21%
MFM wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
69%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
33%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
11%
MFM 1+ goals
50%
MFM 2+ goals
16%
MFM 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
68%
MFM (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

MFM away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + MFM defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

MFM attack 0.49 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Adamawa United scores more
47%
level
31%
MFM scores more
22%

Adamawa United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adamawa United face MFM (NPFL)

NPFL returns with Adamawa United hosting MFM. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Adamawa United host MFM at Pantami Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.