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Mezőkövesd II vs Gyöngyös — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
FT
1 – 2
Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
4/4/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 27Mezőkövesd Zsóry Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II43%
×Draw22%
Gyöngyös35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mezőkövesd II
1.89
Gyöngyös
1.70

Mezőkövesd II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
Gyöngyös
1.14

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II
2.26
Gyöngyös
2.40

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par
Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Gyöngyös →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw
65%
Mezőkövesd II or Gyöngyös
78%
Draw or Gyöngyös
57%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
23%
Gyöngyös wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
85%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
56%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
29%
Gyöngyös 1+ goals
82%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
51%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
55%
Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.89

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more
43%
level
22%
Gyöngyös scores more
35%

Mezőkövesd II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mezőkövesd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Mezőkövesd II 1–2 Gyöngyös

Gyöngyös beat Mezőkövesd II 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Mezőkövesd Zsóry Edzőpálya in Mezőkövesd.