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Gyöngyös vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
FT
3 – 0
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
9/5/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 8Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gyöngyös54%
×Draw20%
Mezőkövesd II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyöngyös
2.25
Mezőkövesd II
1.53

Gyöngyös creates 47% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gyöngyös
1.33
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Gyöngyös
2.16
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Gyöngyös+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyöngyös ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gyöngyös or draw
74%
Gyöngyös or Mezőkövesd II
80%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
46%

Winning margin

Gyöngyös wins by 2+
33%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gyöngyös 1+ goals
89%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
65%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
39%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
78%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
45%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
67%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyöngyös at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.16 · 43 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyöngyös attack 1.33 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.25

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Gyöngyös defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gyöngyös scores more
54%
level
20%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
26%

Gyöngyös at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gyöngyös will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyöngyös vs Mezőkövesd II

Gyöngyös beat Mezőkövesd II 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Kömlei Károly Városi Sporttelep in Gyöngyös.