Mezőkövesd II 1–5 Diósgyőr II: Result & Stats

Mezőkövesd II

FT

1 – 5

Diósgyőr II

4/14/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 29Mezőkövesd Zsóry Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II34%

×Draw23%

Diósgyőr II44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mezőkövesd IIExpected goals in this matchDiósgyőr II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.78

Mezőkövesd II

1.54

Diósgyőr II

1.78

Diósgyőr II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

1.37

creates per match

1.30

2.26

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II

1.37

Diósgyőr II

1.30

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II

2.26

Diósgyőr II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Diósgyőr II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw

56%

Mezőkövesd II or Diósgyőr II

77%

Draw or Diósgyőr II

66%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+

16%

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals

79%

Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals

45%

Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals

20%

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals

83%

Diósgyőr II 2+ goals

53%

Diósgyőr II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)

44%

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more

34%

level

23%

Diósgyőr II scores more

44%

Diósgyőr II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff