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Diósgyőr II vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
FT
2 – 1
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
9/13/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 10DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Diósgyőr II62%
×Draw19%
Mezőkövesd II19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diósgyőr II
2.45
Mezőkövesd II
1.29

Diósgyőr II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

creates per match

Diósgyőr II
1.73
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Diósgyőr II
1.69
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw
81%
Diósgyőr II or Mezőkövesd II
81%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
38%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
41%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
91%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
70%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
44%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
72%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
37%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
77%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.45

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more
62%
level
19%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
19%

Diósgyőr II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Diósgyőr II 2–1 Mezőkövesd II

Diósgyőr II beat Mezőkövesd II 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya in Miskolc.