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Mezőkövesd II vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
FT
1 – 1
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
9/27/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 11Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II32%
×Draw22%
Debrecen II46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mezőkövesd II
1.57
Debrecen II
1.94

Debrecen II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II
2.26
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw
54%
Mezőkövesd II or Debrecen II
78%
Draw or Debrecen II
68%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
15%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
79%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
46%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
21%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
86%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
58%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
40%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more
32%
level
22%
Debrecen II scores more
46%

Debrecen II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mezőkövesd II vs Debrecen II

Mezőkövesd II and Debrecen II drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Mezőkövesd.