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Debrecen II vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Debrecen II
Debrecen II
FT
6 – 0
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
4/18/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 30Nagyerdei Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Debrecen II68%
×Draw17%
Mezőkövesd II15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debrecen II
2.59
Mezőkövesd II
1.14

Debrecen II creates 127% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

creates per match

Debrecen II
2.03
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Debrecen II
1.38
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw
85%
Debrecen II or Mezőkövesd II
83%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
32%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+
46%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals
92%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
73%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
47%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
68%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
32%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)
82%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.59

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Debrecen II scores more
68%
level
17%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
15%

Debrecen II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Debrecen II 6–0 Mezőkövesd II

Debrecen II beat Mezőkövesd II 6-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen.