Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mezőkövesd II vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
FT
2 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
5/9/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 34Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II33%
×Draw24%
Cegledi VSE43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
Cegledi VSE
1.61

Cegledi VSE creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
Cegledi VSE
0.96

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II
2.26
Cegledi VSE
1.37

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw
57%
Mezőkövesd II or Cegledi VSE
76%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
67%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
15%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
75%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
40%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
16%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
80%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
48%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
43%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cegledi VSE attack 0.96 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more
33%
level
24%
Cegledi VSE scores more
43%

Cegledi VSE at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Mezőkövesd II 2–0 Cegledi VSE

Mezőkövesd II beat Cegledi VSE 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Mezőkövesd.