Cegledi VSE 2–2 Mezőkövesd II: Result & Stats

Cegledi VSE

FT

2 – 2

Mezőkövesd II

10/25/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 15Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cegledi VSE69%

×Draw17%

Mezőkövesd II14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cegledi VSEExpected goals in this matchMezőkövesd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.03

Cegledi VSE

2.53

Mezőkövesd II

1.03

Cegledi VSE creates 146% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

1.90

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

Cegledi VSE

1.90

Mezőkövesd II

0.89

allows per match

Cegledi VSE

1.17

Mezőkövesd II

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Mezőkövesd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw

86%

Cegledi VSE or Mezőkövesd II

83%

Draw or Mezőkövesd II

31%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+

47%

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals

92%

Cegledi VSE 2+ goals

71%

Cegledi VSE 3+ goals

46%

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals

64%

Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals

28%

Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)

84%

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 1.90 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.53

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more

69%

level

17%

Mezőkövesd II scores more

14%

Cegledi VSE at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cegledi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff