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Mezőkövesd II vs BVSC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
FT
0 – 2
BVSC
BVSC
12/6/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 21Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mezőkövesd II20%
×Draw21%
BVSC59%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mezőkövesd II
1.06
BVSC
2.00

BVSC creates 89% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mezőkövesd II
1.37
BVSC
1.74

allows per match

Mezőkövesd II
2.26
BVSC
0.76

finishing

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par
BVSC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mezőkövesd II ↓

BVSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mezőkövesd II or draw
41%
Mezőkövesd II or BVSC
79%
Draw or BVSC
80%

Winning margin

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
7%
BVSC wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
65%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
29%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
9%
BVSC 1+ goals
86%
BVSC 2+ goals
59%
BVSC 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
25%
BVSC (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mezőkövesd II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

BVSC away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mezőkövesd II attack 1.37 + BVSC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

BVSC attack 1.74 + Mezőkövesd II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mezőkövesd II scores more
20%
level
21%
BVSC scores more
59%

BVSC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Mezőkövesd II 0–2 BVSC

BVSC beat Mezőkövesd II 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Városi Stadion in Mezőkövesd.