BVSC 2–0 Mezőkövesd II: Result & Stats

BVSC

FT

2 – 0

Mezőkövesd II

8/9/2020

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 2Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BVSC81%

×Draw12%

Mezőkövesd II7%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BVSCExpected goals in this matchMezőkövesd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.03

0.78

BVSC

3.03

Mezőkövesd II

0.78

BVSC creates 288% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

2.89

creates per match

0.89

0.66

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

BVSC

2.89

Mezőkövesd II

0.89

allows per match

BVSC

0.66

Mezőkövesd II

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BVSC+0.00on par

Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BVSC ↓

Mezőkövesd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

BVSC or draw

93%

BVSC or Mezőkövesd II

88%

Draw or Mezőkövesd II

19%

Winning margin

BVSC wins by 2+

62%

Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

BVSC 1+ goals

95%

BVSC 2+ goals

80%

BVSC 3+ goals

57%

Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals

54%

Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals

18%

Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

BVSC (draw refunded)

92%

Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BVSC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.66 · 38 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BVSC attack 2.89 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 3.03

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + BVSC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

BVSC scores more

81%

level

12%

Mezőkövesd II scores more

7%

BVSC at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff