Mexico 0–0 Uruguay: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Mexico

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uruguay

11/16/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Mexico40%

×Draw26%

Uruguay33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchUruguay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Mexico

1.38

Uruguay

1.23

Mexico creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 24 away

1.64

creates per match

1.38

1.09

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Mexico

1.64

Uruguay

1.38

allows per match

Mexico

1.09

Uruguay

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

Uruguay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Uruguay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

67%

Mexico or Uruguay

74%

Draw or Uruguay

60%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

19%

Uruguay wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

75%

Mexico 2+ goals

40%

Mexico 3+ goals

16%

Uruguay 1+ goals

71%

Uruguay 2+ goals

35%

Uruguay 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

55%

Uruguay (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Uruguay away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Uruguay defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Uruguay attack 1.38 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mexico scores more

40%

level

26%

Uruguay scores more

33%

Mexico at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Mathías Olivera

Uruguay · D

8.0

Match Events

38'

Edson Álvarez

45'

Gilberto Mora← Hirving Lozano

46'

Nahitan Nández← Rodrigo Zalazar

46'

Facundo Torres← Juan Manuel Sanabria

58'

Nahitan Nández

65'

Orbelín Pineda← Erick Sánchez

65'

Obed Vargas← Marcel Ruíz

66'

Erik Lira← Edson Álvarez

74'

Maximiliano Araújo← Brian Rodríguez

79'

Germán Berterame← Raúl Jiménez

79'

Diego Lainez← Roberto Alvarado

81'

81'

84'

88'

89'

89'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MexicoUruguay

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots3

10Fouls3

Shots

10Total Shots3

3On Target2

5Off Target1

2Blocked0

5Inside Box2

5Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

418Total Passes386

362Accurate Passes326

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls3

3Yellow Cards6

2Offsides1