Mexico 3–1 Uruguay: Result & Stats | Copa America

Mexico

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Uruguay

H. Herrera 90+2'

R. Márquez 85'

Á. Pereira 4' (OG)

D. Godín 74'

6/6/2016

Copa America · Group Stage - 2University of Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mexico41%

×Draw33%

Uruguay26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchUruguay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.75

Mexico

1.02

Uruguay

0.75

Mexico creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Mexico

1.25

Uruguay

1.00

allows per match

Mexico

0.50

Uruguay

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

Uruguay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Uruguay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

74%

Mexico or Uruguay

67%

Draw or Uruguay

59%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

16%

Uruguay wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

64%

Mexico 2+ goals

27%

Mexico 3+ goals

8%

Uruguay 1+ goals

53%

Uruguay 2+ goals

17%

Uruguay 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

61%

Uruguay (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Uruguay away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.25 + Uruguay defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Uruguay attack 1.00 + Mexico defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mexico scores more

41%

level

33%

Uruguay scores more

26%

Mexico at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Márquez

Mexico · M

7.8

Match Events

4'

Á. PereiraOwn goal

25'

27'

45'

45'

46'

Álvaro González← N. Lodeiro

55'

H. Lozano← J. Aquino

59'

José Giménez

60'

A. Hernández← D. Rolan

61'

J. Dueñas← Jesús Corona

68'

73'

73'

74'

83'

R. Jiménez← J. Hernández

84'

Diego Godín

84'

G. Ramírez← C. Sánchez

85'

R. Márquez

90'

Raúl Jiménez

90+2'

H. Herrera↳ R. Jiménez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MexicoUruguay

Overview

60%Possession40%

19Total Shots10

6Corners5

16Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots10

7On Target3

5Off Target4

7Blocked3

14Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

450Total Passes289

378Accurate Passes207

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

3Offsides5