Mexico 1–2 Paraguay: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Mexico

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Paraguay

Raúl Jiménez 54' (pen)

Damián Bobadilla 56'

Antonio Sanabria 48'

11/19/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Alamodome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mexico54%

×Draw24%

Paraguay21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchParaguay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.95

Mexico

1.67

Paraguay

0.95

Mexico creates 76% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 26 away

1.64

creates per match

0.81

1.09

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Mexico

1.64

Paraguay

0.81

allows per match

Mexico

1.09

Paraguay

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

Paraguay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Paraguay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

79%

Mexico or Paraguay

76%

Draw or Paraguay

46%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

29%

Paraguay wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

81%

Mexico 2+ goals

50%

Mexico 3+ goals

23%

Paraguay 1+ goals

61%

Paraguay 2+ goals

25%

Paraguay 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

72%

Paraguay (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Paraguay away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Paraguay defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Paraguay attack 0.81 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mexico scores more

54%

level

24%

Paraguay scores more

21%

Mexico at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Julio Enciso

Paraguay · M

8.2

Match Events

24'

Erik Lira

36'

Raúl Jiménez

37'

Alan Benítez

46'

Damián Bobadilla← Diego Gómez

46'

Julio Enciso← Miguel Almirón

48'

Antonio Sanabria↳ Julio Enciso

51'

Antonio SanabriaGoal confirmed

54'

Raúl JiménezPenalty

56'

Damián Bobadilla↳ Julio Enciso

60'

Johan Vásquez← Jesús Orozco

60'

Roberto Alvarado← Jorge Ruvalcaba

60'

Jesús Gallardo← Mateo Chávez

67'

Armando González← Gilberto Mora

67'

Kevin Álvarez← Israel Reyes

68'

Diego González← Ramón Sosa

68'

Alex Arce← Antonio Sanabria

73'

Erick Sánchez← Marcel Ruíz

77'

Orbelín Pineda

83'

Junior Alonso← Matías Galarza

90'

Lucas Romero← Braian Ojeda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MexicoParaguay

Overview

73%Possession27%

9Total Shots14

3Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target7

3Off Target5

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

73%Possession27%

514Total Passes189

449Accurate Passes123

87%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1