Mexico 4–2 Paraguay: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Mexico

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Paraguay

Luis Montes 90'

Javier Hernández 24'

Gustavo Gómez 9' (OG)

Jonathan dos Santos 6'

Derlis González 84'

Hernán Pérez 59'

3/27/2019

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Levi's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mexico54%

×Draw24%

Paraguay21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MexicoExpected goals in this matchParaguay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.95

Mexico

1.67

Paraguay

0.95

Mexico creates 76% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 26 away

1.64

creates per match

0.81

1.09

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Mexico

1.64

Paraguay

0.81

allows per match

Mexico

1.09

Paraguay

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mexico+0.00on par

Paraguay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mexico ↓

Paraguay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mexico or draw

79%

Mexico or Paraguay

76%

Draw or Paraguay

46%

Winning margin

Mexico wins by 2+

29%

Paraguay wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mexico 1+ goals

81%

Mexico 2+ goals

50%

Mexico 3+ goals

23%

Paraguay 1+ goals

61%

Paraguay 2+ goals

25%

Paraguay 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mexico (draw refunded)

72%

Paraguay (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mexico at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 58 matches

Paraguay away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mexico attack 1.64 + Paraguay defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Paraguay attack 0.81 + Mexico defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mexico scores more

54%

level

24%

Paraguay scores more

21%

Mexico at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Jonathan dos Santos

9'

Gustavo GómezOwn goal

24'

Javier Hernández↳ Jonathan dos Santos

30'

Erick Gutierrez

46'

José Juan Vázquez← Edson Álvarez

46'

Isaac Brizuela← Diego Lainez

46'

Ivan Piris← Gustavo Gómez

49'

Junior Alonso

56'

Óscar Romero← Carlos González

56'

Miguel Almirón← Matias Rojas

59'

Hernán Pérez↳ Óscar Romero

63'

Miguel Almirón

64'

Miguel Layún

64'

Óscar Romero

68'

Luis Montes← Roberto Alvarado

68'

Celso Ortiz← Alejandro Romero Gamarra

73'

César Montes← Néstor Araujo

78'

Víctor Guzmán← Erick Gutierrez

78'

Alexis Vega← Javier Hernández

83'

Derlis González← Hernán Pérez

84'

Derlis González↳ Cecilio Domínguez

85'

Cecilio Domínguez← Héctor Villalba

89'

Luis Montes

90'

Luis Montes↳ Alexis Vega

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MexicoParaguay

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots5

5Corners2

9Fouls21

Shots

7Total Shots5

4On Target3

3Off Target2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls21

3Yellow Cards2

–Red Cards1

Match Recap: Mexico vs Paraguay

Mexico beat Paraguay 4-2 in Friendlies on March 27, 2019.

Goals: Jonathan dos Santos (6'), Gustavo Gómez (9' o.g.), Javier Hernández (24'), Hernán Pérez (59'), Derlis González (84'), Luis Montes (90').

Mexico controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara.

Mexico vs Paraguay — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Mexico vs Paraguay