Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metz vs Sochaux — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Metz
Metz
CANC
12:00
Sochaux
Sochaux
7/25/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Metz63%
×Draw21%
Sochaux16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.96
Sochaux
0.85

Metz creates 131% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

creates per match

Metz
2.25
Sochaux
1.00

allows per match

Metz
0.70
Sochaux
1.67

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Metz or draw
84%
Metz or Sochaux
79%
Draw or Sochaux
37%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
38%
Sochaux wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
86%
Metz 2+ goals
58%
Metz 3+ goals
31%
Sochaux 1+ goals
57%
Sochaux 2+ goals
21%
Sochaux 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
80%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 2.25 + Sochaux defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sochaux attack 1.00 + Metz defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Metz scores more
63%
level
21%
Sochaux scores more
16%

Metz at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Metz host Sochaux

July 25, 2023: Metz take on Sochaux in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Metz host Sochaux at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.