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Metz vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sochaux
Sochaux
10/15/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metz49%
×Draw27%
Sochaux24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.44
Sochaux
0.93

Metz creates 55% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 95 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Sochaux
1.03

allows per match

Metz
0.82
Sochaux
1.08

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Metz or draw
76%
Metz or Sochaux
73%
Draw or Sochaux
51%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
24%
Sochaux wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
76%
Metz 2+ goals
42%
Metz 3+ goals
18%
Sochaux 1+ goals
61%
Sochaux 2+ goals
24%
Sochaux 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
67%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sochaux attack 1.03 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Metz scores more
49%
level
27%
Sochaux scores more
24%

Metz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
M. PrévotSochauxSochaux · G
8.5

Match Events

10'
Ablie Jallow
19'
Gaetan Weissbeck
76'
H. Tebily← I. Sissoko
76'
R. Pereira De Sa← M. Doumbia
79'
C. Sabaly← L. Gueye
84'
A. Dia N'Diaye← I. Niane
84'
T. Mauricio← G. Weissbeck
84'
S. Alvero← F. Kanouté
90+1'
A. Musaba← A. Jallow
90+2'
Y. Armougom← A. Ndour

Possession

51%Metz

Shots

24Metz

Pass accuracy

51%Metz

Statistics

MetzSochaux
Overview
51%Possession49%
24Total Shots19
7Corners7
16Fouls13
Shots
24Total Shots19
6On Target3
13Off Target8
5Blocked8
8Inside Box4
16Outside Box15
Passing
51%Possession49%
412Total Passes391
349Accurate Passes323
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
16Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Ligue 2: Metz 0–0 Sochaux

Metz and Sochaux drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on October 15, 2022.

Metz controlled possession (51%) and registered 24 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.