Metz 2–0 Lens: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Metz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lens

G. Hein 90', 87' (pen)

10/29/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Metz31%

×Draw25%

Lens43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetzExpected goals in this matchLens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.50

Metz

1.24

Lens

1.50

Lens creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

1.13

creates per match

1.60

1.40

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Metz

1.13

Lens

1.60

allows per match

Metz

1.40

Lens

1.35

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Metz-0.28scores less

Lens+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Lens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Metz or draw

57%

Metz or Lens

75%

Draw or Lens

69%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+

13%

Lens wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals

71%

Metz 2+ goals

35%

Metz 3+ goals

13%

Lens 1+ goals

78%

Lens 2+ goals

44%

Lens 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)

42%

Lens (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Lens away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.13 + Lens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Lens attack 1.60 + Metz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Metz scores more

31%

level

25%

Lens scores more

43%

Lens at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

45+6'

45+3'

46'

46'

M. Guilavogui← A. Sima

63'

R. Aguilar← D. Machado

68'

Gauthier Hein

81'

I. Sane← C. Sabaly

81'

G. Abuashvili← G. Tsitaishvili

81'

I. Guerti← J. Deminguet

87'

G. HeinPenalty

88'

A. Bulatovic← J. Gradit

88'

R. Fofana← F. Thauvin

90+2'

Gauthier Hein

90+2'

Gauthier Hein

90'

G. Hein↳ I. Sane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetzLens

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots10

3.42Expected Goals (xG)1.32

2Corners5

15Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target2

8Off Target5

1Blocked3

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

456Total Passes524

392Accurate Passes459

86%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.91Goals Prevented0.91

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Metz 2 – 0 Lens

Metz beat Lens 2-0 in Ligue 1 on October 29, 2025.

Goals: G. Hein (87' pen, 90').

Lens controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Metz.

Metz vs Lens — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Metz 2 – 0 Lens