Lens 3–0 Metz: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lens

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Metz

A. Haidara 52'

F. Thauvin 46'

S. Abdulhamid 44'

3/8/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Lens64%

×Draw20%

Metz16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LensExpected goals in this matchMetz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.97

Lens

2.12

Metz

0.97

Lens creates 119% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 18 away

1.98

creates per match

0.82

1.11

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Lens

1.98

Metz

0.82

allows per match

Lens

1.11

Metz

2.26

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Lens-0.37scores less

Metz+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lens ↓

Metz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lens or draw

84%

Lens or Metz

80%

Draw or Metz

36%

Winning margin

Lens wins by 2+

40%

Metz wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lens 1+ goals

88%

Lens 2+ goals

62%

Lens 3+ goals

35%

Metz 1+ goals

62%

Metz 2+ goals

25%

Metz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lens (draw refunded)

80%

Metz (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lens at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Metz away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lens attack 1.98 + Metz defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.12

Metz attack 0.82 + Lens defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lens scores more

64%

level

20%

Metz scores more

16%

Lens at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Jean-Philippe Gbamin

44'

S. Abdulhamid↳ A. Sima

46'

A. Haidara← N. Celik

46'

J. Deminguet← B. Traore

46'

F. Thauvin↳ A. Thomasson

49'

Alpha Touré

52'

A. Haidara↳ M. Udol

54'

G. Hein← G. Kvilitaia

54'

N. Mbala← B. Munongo

63'

F. Sotoca← F. Thauvin

63'

R. Fofana← O. Edouard

72'

G. Tsitaishvili← B. Sarr

73'

A. Bulatovic← M. Sangare

73'

U. Mboula← F. Ballo-Toure

83'

A. Bermont← A. Sima

90'

Urie-Michel Mboula

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LensMetz

Overview

52%Possession48%

24Total Shots5

2.75Expected Goals (xG)0.40

6Corners4

12Fouls17

Shots

24Total Shots5

7On Target0

12Off Target2

5Blocked3

19Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

487Total Passes469

427Accurate Passes401

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

-0.96Goals Prevented-0.96

Discipline

12Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Ligue 1: Lens 3–0 Metz

Lens beat Metz 3-0 in Ligue 1 on March 8, 2026.

Goals: S. Abdulhamid (44'), F. Thauvin (46'), A. Haidara (52').

Lens controlled possession (52%) and registered 24 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Lens.

Lens vs Metz — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Lens 3–0 Metz