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Metz vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
6/2/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Metz53%
×Draw26%
Bastia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.56
Bastia
0.88

Metz creates 77% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 91 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Metz
0.72
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Metz or draw
79%
Metz or Bastia
74%
Draw or Bastia
47%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
28%
Bastia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
79%
Metz 2+ goals
46%
Metz 3+ goals
21%
Bastia 1+ goals
59%
Bastia 2+ goals
22%
Bastia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
71%
Bastia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.72 · 57 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bastia attack 1.03 + Metz defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Metz scores more
53%
level
26%
Bastia scores more
21%

Metz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Metz 3–2 Bastia

Metz beat Bastia 3-2 in Ligue 2 on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.