Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bastia vs Metz — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Metz
Metz
M. Blé 11'
G. Hein 90+5' (pen)
1/31/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Bastia30%
×Draw28%
Metz41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.03
Metz
1.25

Metz creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Metz
1.56

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Metz
0.89

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
59%
Bastia or Metz
72%
Draw or Metz
70%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
11%
Metz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
64%
Bastia 2+ goals
28%
Bastia 3+ goals
9%
Metz 1+ goals
71%
Metz 2+ goals
36%
Metz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
42%
Metz (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Metz away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Metz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Metz attack 1.56 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bastia scores more
30%
level
28%
Metz scores more
41%

Metz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. HeinMetzMetz · M
8.0

Match Events

11'
M. Blé
36'
J. Nduquidi← A. Lô
39'
Loïc Etoga
43'
Christophe Vincent
45+1'
Idrissa Gueye
57'
Christ Inao Oulaï
58'
Tom Meynadier
64'
Loïc Etoga
64'
Loïc Etoga
66'
M. Bokele Mputu← P. Diallo
66'
K. Van Den Kerkhof← K. Kouao
70'
Dylan Tavares← M. Blé
83'
I. Sané← I. Gueye
83'
J. Asoro← B. Stambouli
89'
Johny Placide
90+4'
J. Guevara← C. Vincent
90+3'
J. Maggiotti← C. Inao Oulaï
90+5'
G. HeinPenalty

Possession

34%Bastia

Shots

22Bastia

Pass accuracy

45%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaMetz
Overview
34%Possession66%
22Total Shots5
4Corners3
18Fouls18
Shots
22Total Shots5
5On Target2
8Off Target3
9Blocked0
14Inside Box4
8Outside Box1
Passing
34%Possession66%
223Total Passes435
157Accurate Passes373
70%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
18Fouls18
6Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Bastia vs Metz

Bastia and Metz drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2025.

Goals: M. Blé (11'), G. Hein (90+5' pen).

Metz controlled possession (66%) and registered 5 shots to 22.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.