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Mettersdorf vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
FT
3 – 0
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
10/7/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 12Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mettersdorf51%
×Draw21%
Lafnitz II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mettersdorf
2.14
Lafnitz II
1.54

Mettersdorf creates 39% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 75 away

creates per match

Mettersdorf
2.47
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Mettersdorf
1.23
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Mettersdorf+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mettersdorf ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mettersdorf or draw
72%
Mettersdorf or Lafnitz II
79%
Draw or Lafnitz II
49%

Winning margin

Mettersdorf wins by 2+
30%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mettersdorf 1+ goals
88%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
63%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
36%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
79%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
45%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
65%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mettersdorf at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.23 · 43 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mettersdorf attack 2.47 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.14

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Mettersdorf defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mettersdorf scores more
51%
level
21%
Lafnitz II scores more
28%

Mettersdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mettersdorf vs Lafnitz II

Mettersdorf beat Lafnitz II 3-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf in Mettersdorf.