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Lafnitz II vs Mettersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
FT
1 – 4
Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
5/19/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 27Sportplatz Lafnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lafnitz II45%
×Draw22%
Mettersdorf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lafnitz II
1.90
Mettersdorf
1.62

Lafnitz II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lafnitz II
2.49
Mettersdorf
1.86

allows per match

Lafnitz II
1.38
Mettersdorf
1.30

finishing

Lafnitz II+0.00on par
Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lafnitz II ↓

Mettersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lafnitz II or draw
67%
Lafnitz II or Mettersdorf
78%
Draw or Mettersdorf
55%

Winning margin

Lafnitz II wins by 2+
24%
Mettersdorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lafnitz II 1+ goals
85%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
56%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
29%
Mettersdorf 1+ goals
80%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
48%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
57%
Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lafnitz II scores more
45%
level
22%
Mettersdorf scores more
33%

Lafnitz II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lafnitz II vs Mettersdorf

Mettersdorf beat Lafnitz II 4-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lafnitz in Lafnitz.