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Mettersdorf vs Bruck an der Mur — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
FT
2 – 1
Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
5/26/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 28Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mettersdorf64%
×Draw18%
Bruck an der Mur18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mettersdorf
2.52
Bruck an der Mur
1.27

Mettersdorf creates 98% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 74 away

creates per match

Mettersdorf
2.47
Bruck an der Mur
1.31

allows per match

Mettersdorf
1.23
Bruck an der Mur
2.57

finishing

Mettersdorf+0.00on par
Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mettersdorf ↓

Bruck an der Mur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Mettersdorf or draw
82%
Mettersdorf or Bruck an der Mur
82%
Draw or Bruck an der Mur
36%

Winning margin

Mettersdorf wins by 2+
43%
Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mettersdorf 1+ goals
92%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
71%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
45%
Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
72%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
36%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
78%
Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mettersdorf at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.23 · 43 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mettersdorf attack 2.47 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.52

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Mettersdorf defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mettersdorf scores more
64%
level
18%
Bruck an der Mur scores more
18%

Mettersdorf at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Mettersdorf 2–1 Bruck an der Mur

Mettersdorf beat Bruck an der Mur 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf in Mettersdorf.