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Bruck an der Mur vs Mettersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
FT
0 – 3
Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
10/14/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 13Murinselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bruck an der Mur34%
×Draw22%
Mettersdorf43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bruck an der Mur
1.61
Mettersdorf
1.83

Mettersdorf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 44 away

creates per match

Bruck an der Mur
1.92
Mettersdorf
1.86

allows per match

Bruck an der Mur
1.79
Mettersdorf
1.30

finishing

Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par
Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bruck an der Mur ↓

Mettersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bruck an der Mur or draw
57%
Bruck an der Mur or Mettersdorf
78%
Draw or Mettersdorf
66%

Winning margin

Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
17%
Mettersdorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
80%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
48%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
22%
Mettersdorf 1+ goals
84%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
54%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
44%
Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bruck an der Mur at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 73 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.92 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + Bruck an der Mur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bruck an der Mur scores more
34%
level
22%
Mettersdorf scores more
43%

Mettersdorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Bruck an der Mur 0–3 Mettersdorf

Mettersdorf beat Bruck an der Mur 3-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Murinselstadion in Bruck an der Mur.