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Metropolitanos FC vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
3/31/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Metropolitanos FC54%
×Draw22%
Llaneros de Guanare24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
2.00
Llaneros de Guanare
1.27

Metropolitanos FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 20 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
76%
Metropolitanos FC or Llaneros de Guanare
78%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
46%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
32%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
86%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
59%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
32%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
72%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
36%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
69%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
54%
level
22%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
24%

Metropolitanos FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Metropolitanos FC 2–2 Llaneros de Guanare

Metropolitanos FC and Llaneros de Guanare drew 2-2 in Primera División on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas).