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Llaneros de Guanare vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
9/22/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare39%
×Draw26%
Metropolitanos FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Metropolitanos FC
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 140 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
65%
Llaneros de Guanare or Metropolitanos FC
74%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
61%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
18%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
75%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
40%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
16%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
73%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
37%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
52%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
39%
level
26%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
35%

Llaneros de Guanare at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Metropolitanos FC

Llaneros de Guanare and Metropolitanos FC drew 2-2 in Primera División on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).