Metropolitanos FC 1–2 Internacional: Result & Stats

Metropolitanos FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Internacional

F. Vargas 50'

Luiz Adriano 30'

Alan Patrick 17' (pen)

5/26/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Metropolitanos FC23%

×Draw29%

Internacional48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metropolitanos FCExpected goals in this matchInternacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.25

Metropolitanos FC

0.77

Internacional

1.25

Internacional creates 62% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 23 away

0.67

creates per match

0.83

1.67

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC

0.67

Internacional

0.83

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.67

Internacional

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Internacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Internacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw

52%

Metropolitanos FC or Internacional

71%

Draw or Internacional

77%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

7%

Internacional wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

54%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

18%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

4%

Internacional 1+ goals

71%

Internacional 2+ goals

36%

Internacional 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

32%

Internacional (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Internacional away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 0.67 + Internacional defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Internacional attack 0.83 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more

23%

level

29%

Internacional scores more

48%

Internacional at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Alan Patrick

Internacional · M

8.9

Match Events

14'

Andres Ferro

17'

Alan PatrickPenalty

30'

Luiz Adriano↳ Alan Patrick

46'

G. Sequera← E. Laszo

46'

C. de Pena← Gustavo Campanharo

49'

50'

53'

64'

66'

67'

Matheus Dias← Wanderson

71'

Alan Patrick

72'

Gabriel Baralhas← J. Cardoso

78'

Gabriel Baralhas

79'

F. Bareiro← C. Cermeño

82'

Igor Gomes← Pedro Henrique

83'

84'

87'

89'

89'

90+1'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetropolitanosInternacional

Overview

52%Possession48%

7Total Shots10

2Corners4

19Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target5

1Off Target5

4Blocked0

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

375Total Passes355

298Accurate Passes285

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls16

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Internacional

Internacional beat Metropolitanos FC 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 26, 2023.

Goals: Alan Patrick (17' pen), Luiz Adriano (30'), F. Vargas (50').

Metropolitanos FC controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.

Metropolitanos FC vs Internacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Internacional