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Internacional vs Metropolitanos FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Internacional
Internacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
Alemão 90+1'
4/18/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Internacional65%
×Draw20%
Metropolitanos FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional
2.04
Metropolitanos FC
0.83

Internacional creates 146% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 3 away

creates per match

Internacional
2.09
Metropolitanos FC
0.67

allows per match

Internacional
1.00
Metropolitanos FC
2.00

finishing

Internacional+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Internacional or draw
86%
Internacional or Metropolitanos FC
80%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
35%

Winning margin

Internacional wins by 2+
41%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Internacional 1+ goals
87%
Internacional 2+ goals
60%
Internacional 3+ goals
33%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
56%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
20%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Internacional (draw refunded)
82%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional attack 2.09 + Metropolitanos FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Metropolitanos FC attack 0.67 + Internacional defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Internacional scores more
65%
level
20%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
14%

Internacional at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Internacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Alan PatrickInternacionalInternacional · M
8.3

Match Events

46'
C. de Pena← J. Cardoso
62'
Gustavo Campanharo← Gabriel Baralhas
63'
Thauan Lara← Igor Gomes
68'
D. Castillo← F. Vargas
68'
W. Araújo← C. Cermeño
71'
Alemão← Luiz Adriano
79'
Lucca← Wanderson
79'
S. Pabón← C. Ortiz
85'
Nestor Cova
88'
E. Valderrey← N. Cova
90+1'
Alemão↳ Lucca

Possession

67%Internacional

Shots

24Internacional

Pass accuracy

56%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalMetropolitanos
Overview
67%Possession33%
24Total Shots3
14Corners0
7Fouls11
Shots
24Total Shots3
7On Target1
12Off Target2
5Blocked0
20Inside Box2
4Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
561Total Passes288
486Accurate Passes193
87%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Internacional vs Metropolitanos FC

Internacional beat Metropolitanos FC 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 18, 2023.

Goals: Alemão (90+1').

Internacional controlled possession (67%) and registered 24 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.