Metropolitanos FC 0–1 Independiente Medellin

Metropolitanos FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

E. Batalla 46'

6/8/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Metropolitanos FC30%

×Draw26%

Independiente Medellin45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metropolitanos FCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.50

Metropolitanos FC

1.17

Independiente Medellin

1.50

Independiente Medellin creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC

0.67

Independiente Medellin

1.33

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.67

Independiente Medellin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw

55%

Metropolitanos FC or Independiente Medellin

74%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

70%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

12%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

69%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

33%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

11%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

78%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

44%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

40%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 0.67 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Independiente Medellin attack 1.33 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more

30%

level

26%

Independiente Medellin scores more

45%

Independiente Medellin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Mosquera

Independiente Medellin · G

8.5

Match Events

10'

E. Batalla← A. Ibargüen

29'

31'

42'

43'

46'

57'

C. Cermeño← J. Marchán

59'

Victor Moreno

60'

D. Torres← A. Ricaurte

70'

José Luis Moreno

70'

José Luis Moreno

72'

J. Martínez← D. Gómez

72'

C. Gruezo← F. Bareiro

72'

N. Cova← E. Valderrey

86'

J. Cabezas← M. Monsalve

86'

E. Valencia← E. Batalla

87'

L. Annese← F. Vargas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetropolitanosIndependiente

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots19

7Corners8

13Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots19

6On Target5

5Off Target7

2Blocked7

6Inside Box13

7Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

320Total Passes457

225Accurate Passes367

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Metropolitanos FC 0–1 Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Metropolitanos FC 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on June 8, 2023.

Goals: E. Batalla (46').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV in Caracas.

Metropolitanos FC vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Metropolitanos FC 0–1 Independiente Medellin