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Independiente Medellin vs Metropolitanos FC — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
L. Pons 45'
M. Monsalve 34'
A. Cadavid 25'
C. Gruezo 1' (OG)
J. Marchán 90+3'
D. Londoño 15' (OG)
5/4/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente Medellin63%
×Draw22%
Metropolitanos FC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.81
Metropolitanos FC
0.72

Independiente Medellin creates 151% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.62
Metropolitanos FC
0.67

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.77
Metropolitanos FC
2.00

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
86%
Independiente Medellin or Metropolitanos FC
78%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
37%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
37%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
84%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
54%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
27%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
51%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
16%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
82%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.62 + Metropolitanos FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Metropolitanos FC attack 0.67 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
63%
level
22%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
14%

Independiente Medellin at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. RicaurteIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · M
8.9

Match Events

1'
C. GruezoOwn goal
15'
D. LondoñoOwn goal
25'
A. Cadavid↳ A. Ricaurte
34'
M. Monsalve↳ A. Ibargüen
35'
C. Cermeno
45'
L. Pons↳ A. Ricaurte
46'
J. Palacios← V. Moreno
46'
N. Cova← E. Valderrey
46'
F. Vargas← D. Castillo
46'
W. Araújo← C. Cermeño
60'
E. Batalla← M. Monsalve
60'
D. Loaiza← J. Alvarado
68'
E. Cetré← D. Quiñónes
69'
A. Ferro
71'
C. Larotonda
79'
Y. Gómez← A. Ricaurte
79'
A. Lucena← R. Flores
79'
J. Marchán← C. Larotonda
90+3'
J. Marchán

Possession

58%Independiente

Shots

16Independiente

Pass accuracy

51%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteMetropolitanos
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots12
8Corners6
11Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots12
7On Target4
5Off Target7
4Blocked1
9Inside Box6
7Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
519Total Passes361
447Accurate Passes291
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Metropolitanos FC

Independiente Medellin beat Metropolitanos FC 4-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 4, 2023.

Goals: C. Gruezo (1' o.g.), D. Londoño (15' o.g.), A. Cadavid (25'), M. Monsalve (34'), L. Pons (45'), J. Marchán (90+3').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.