Metropolitanos FC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC

Metropolitanos FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estudiantes de Merida FC

5/8/2026

Primera División · Apertura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Metropolitanos FC46%

×Draw25%

Estudiantes de Merida FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metropolitanos FCExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes de Merida FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.15

Metropolitanos FC

1.53

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.15

Metropolitanos FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 138 away

1.49

creates per match

1.19

1.10

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.49

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.19

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.10

Estudiantes de Merida FC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Estudiantes de Merida FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw

71%

Metropolitanos FC or Estudiantes de Merida FC

75%

Draw or Estudiantes de Merida FC

54%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

23%

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

78%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

45%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

20%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals

68%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals

32%

Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

62%

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.19 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more

46%

level

25%

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more

29%

Metropolitanos FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff