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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Estudiantes de Merida FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
4/5/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Estudiantes de Merida FC45%
×Draw26%
Metropolitanos FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.44
Metropolitanos FC
1.08

Estudiantes de Merida FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 140 away

creates per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.51
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1.08
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Estudiantes de Merida FC+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes de Merida FC ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw
72%
Estudiantes de Merida FC or Metropolitanos FC
74%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
55%

Winning margin

Estudiantes de Merida FC wins by 2+
22%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1+ goals
76%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 2+ goals
42%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 3+ goals
18%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
66%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
29%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes de Merida FC (draw refunded)
62%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 140 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC attack 1.51 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Estudiantes de Merida FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estudiantes de Merida FC scores more
45%
level
26%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
28%

Estudiantes de Merida FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Estudiantes de Merida FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Metropolitanos FC

Metropolitanos FC beat Estudiantes de Merida FC 2-1 in Primera División on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida in Mérida.