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Metropolitanos FC vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
CANC
00:00
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
10/19/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Metropolitanos FC52%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Anzoategui23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.65
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.01

Metropolitanos FC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 26 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
77%
Metropolitanos FC or Deportivo Anzoategui
75%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
48%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
28%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
81%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
49%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
23%

Metropolitanos FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Metropolitanos FC host Deportivo Anzoategui

October 19, 2019: Metropolitanos FC take on Deportivo Anzoategui in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Metropolitanos FC host Deportivo Anzoategui at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV (Caracas).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.