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Deportivo Anzoategui vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
4/27/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deportivo Anzoategui36%
×Draw28%
Metropolitanos FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.19
Metropolitanos FC
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 140 away

creates per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.00
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Deportivo Anzoategui
1.33
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Anzoategui ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Anzoategui or draw
64%
Deportivo Anzoategui or Metropolitanos FC
72%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
15%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
12%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
70%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
34%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
50%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Anzoategui at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 1.00 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
36%
level
28%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
36%

Deportivo Anzoategui at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Anzoategui 0–1 Metropolitanos FC

Metropolitanos FC beat Deportivo Anzoategui 1-0 in Primera División on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).