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Metropolitanos FC vs Academia Anzoátegui — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
3/23/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 9Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Metropolitanos FC47%
×Draw25%
Academia Anzoátegui28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.59
Academia Anzoátegui
1.18

Metropolitanos FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 23 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Academia Anzoátegui
1.26

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Academia Anzoátegui
1.70

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Academia Anzoátegui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
72%
Metropolitanos FC or Academia Anzoátegui
75%
Draw or Academia Anzoátegui
53%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
24%
Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
80%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
47%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
21%
Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
69%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
33%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
62%
Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Academia Anzoátegui away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Academia Anzoátegui attack 1.26 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
47%
level
25%
Academia Anzoátegui scores more
28%

Metropolitanos FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Academia Anzoátegui

Metropolitanos FC beat Academia Anzoátegui 2-0 in Primera División on March 23, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.