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Academia Anzoátegui vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Academia Anzoátegui
Academia Anzoátegui
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
2/17/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Academia Anzoátegui36%
×Draw28%
Metropolitanos FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Anzoátegui
1.16
Metropolitanos FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 140 away

creates per match

Academia Anzoátegui
0.95
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Academia Anzoátegui
1.27
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Academia Anzoátegui+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Anzoátegui ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Academia Anzoátegui or draw
64%
Academia Anzoátegui or Metropolitanos FC
72%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
64%

Winning margin

Academia Anzoátegui wins by 2+
15%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Academia Anzoátegui 1+ goals
69%
Academia Anzoátegui 2+ goals
32%
Academia Anzoátegui 3+ goals
11%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
69%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
33%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Academia Anzoátegui (draw refunded)
50%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Anzoátegui at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Anzoátegui attack 0.95 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Academia Anzoátegui defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Academia Anzoátegui scores more
36%
level
28%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
36%

Academia Anzoátegui at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Academia Anzoátegui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academia Anzoátegui vs Metropolitanos FC

Academia Anzoátegui beat Metropolitanos FC 3-1 in Primera División on February 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui in Puerto La Cruz.