Metropolitano 3–1 Atlético Catarinense

Metropolitano

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Catarinense

6/29/2024

Catarinense - 2 · Round 6Estádio Genésio Ayres Marchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Metropolitano46%

×Draw28%

Atlético Catarinense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetropolitanoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Catarinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.91

Metropolitano

1.30

Atlético Catarinense

0.91

Metropolitano creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

1.43

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Metropolitano

1.43

Atlético Catarinense

0.92

allows per match

Metropolitano

0.89

Atlético Catarinense

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metropolitano+0.00on par

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitano ↓

Atlético Catarinense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Metropolitano or draw

74%

Metropolitano or Atlético Catarinense

72%

Draw or Atlético Catarinense

54%

Winning margin

Metropolitano wins by 2+

21%

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Metropolitano 1+ goals

73%

Metropolitano 2+ goals

37%

Metropolitano 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Metropolitano (draw refunded)

64%

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Atlético Catarinense away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitano attack 1.43 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Atlético Catarinense attack 0.92 + Metropolitano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Metropolitano scores more

46%

level

28%

Atlético Catarinense scores more

26%

Metropolitano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Metropolitano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff