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Atlético Catarinense vs Metropolitano — Catarinense - 2 2022

Atlético Catarinense
Atlético Catarinense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Metropolitano
Metropolitanoadvanced
8/6/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Catarinense35%
×Draw29%
Metropolitano36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Catarinense
1.10
Metropolitano
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

creates per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.00
Metropolitano
0.90

allows per match

Atlético Catarinense
1.33
Metropolitano
1.21

finishing

Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par
Metropolitano+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Catarinense ↓

Metropolitano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Catarinense or draw
64%
Atlético Catarinense or Metropolitano
71%
Draw or Metropolitano
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+
14%
Metropolitano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals
10%
Metropolitano 1+ goals
67%
Metropolitano 2+ goals
30%
Metropolitano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)
50%
Metropolitano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Catarinense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Metropolitano away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Catarinense attack 1.00 + Metropolitano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Metropolitano attack 0.90 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atlético Catarinense scores more
35%
level
29%
Metropolitano scores more
36%

Metropolitano at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Metropolitano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Catarinense vs Metropolitano

Metropolitano beat Atlético Catarinense 2-1 in Catarinense - 2 on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Renato Silveira in Palhoça, Santa Catarina.