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Meteor Praha vs Louny — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Louny
Louny
3/17/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 18Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Meteor Praha60%
×Draw20%
Louny20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
2.17
Louny
1.17

Meteor Praha creates 85% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 70 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Louny
1.16

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Louny
2.04

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Louny+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Louny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
80%
Meteor Praha or Louny
80%
Draw or Louny
40%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
37%
Louny wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
89%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
64%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
36%
Louny 1+ goals
69%
Louny 2+ goals
33%
Louny 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
75%
Louny (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Louny away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Louny defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.17

Louny attack 1.16 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
60%
level
20%
Louny scores more
20%

Meteor Praha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meteor Praha vs Louny

Meteor Praha beat Louny 5-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.