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Louny vs Meteor Praha — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Louny
Louny
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
8/23/20254. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Louny38%
×Draw23%
Meteor Praha40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louny
1.66
Meteor Praha
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 83 away

creates per match

Louny
1.60
Meteor Praha
1.57

allows per match

Louny
1.84
Meteor Praha
1.72

finishing

Louny+0.00on par
Meteor Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louny ↓

Meteor Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Louny or draw
60%
Louny or Meteor Praha
77%
Draw or Meteor Praha
62%

Winning margin

Louny wins by 2+
19%
Meteor Praha wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Louny 1+ goals
81%
Louny 2+ goals
49%
Louny 3+ goals
23%
Meteor Praha 1+ goals
82%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
51%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Louny (draw refunded)
49%
Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louny at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Meteor Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louny attack 1.60 + Meteor Praha defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Meteor Praha attack 1.57 + Louny defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Louny scores more
38%
level
23%
Meteor Praha scores more
40%

Meteor Praha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Louny vs Meteor Praha

Meteor Praha beat Louny 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Louny.