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Meteor Praha vs Dobříš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
FT
3 – 1
Dobříš
Dobříš
10/20/20194. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Round 11Sportovní Areál Libeň (Praha)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Meteor Praha73%
×Draw15%
Dobříš12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
2.85
Dobříš
1.07

Meteor Praha creates 166% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 24 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Dobříš
0.96

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Dobříš
3.42

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Dobříš+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Dobříš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
88%
Meteor Praha or Dobříš
85%
Draw or Dobříš
27%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
53%
Dobříš wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
94%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
77%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
53%
Dobříš 1+ goals
66%
Dobříš 2+ goals
29%
Dobříš 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
86%
Dobříš (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Dobříš away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Dobříš defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.85

Dobříš attack 0.96 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
73%
level
15%
Dobříš scores more
12%

Meteor Praha at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meteor Praha vs Dobříš

Meteor Praha beat Dobříš 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň (Praha).