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Dobříš vs Meteor Praha — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Dobříš
Dobříš
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
5/21/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 26UMT Dobříš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dobříš36%
×Draw22%
Meteor Praha42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobříš
1.67
Meteor Praha
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 83 away

creates per match

Dobříš
1.63
Meteor Praha
1.57

allows per match

Dobříš
2.04
Meteor Praha
1.72

finishing

Dobříš+0.00on par
Meteor Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobříš ↓

Meteor Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dobříš or draw
58%
Dobříš or Meteor Praha
78%
Draw or Meteor Praha
64%

Winning margin

Dobříš wins by 2+
18%
Meteor Praha wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dobříš 1+ goals
81%
Dobříš 2+ goals
50%
Dobříš 3+ goals
23%
Meteor Praha 1+ goals
84%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
54%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dobříš (draw refunded)
46%
Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobříš at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Meteor Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobříš attack 1.63 + Meteor Praha defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Meteor Praha attack 1.57 + Dobříš defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dobříš scores more
36%
level
22%
Meteor Praha scores more
42%

Meteor Praha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Dobříš 2–2 Meteor Praha

Dobříš and Meteor Praha drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at UMT Dobříš in Dobříš.