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Meteor Praha vs Admira Praha II — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
8/13/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 2Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Meteor Praha61%
×Draw20%
Admira Praha II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha
2.21
Admira Praha II
1.14

Meteor Praha creates 94% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 45 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha
2.29
Admira Praha II
1.09

allows per match

Meteor Praha
1.19
Admira Praha II
2.13

finishing

Meteor Praha+0.00on par
Admira Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha ↓

Admira Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Meteor Praha or draw
81%
Meteor Praha or Admira Praha II
80%
Draw or Admira Praha II
39%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha wins by 2+
39%
Admira Praha II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Meteor Praha 1+ goals
89%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
65%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
38%
Admira Praha II 1+ goals
68%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
32%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
77%
Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.19 · 84 matches

Admira Praha II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha attack 2.29 + Admira Praha II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.21

Admira Praha II attack 1.09 + Meteor Praha defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Meteor Praha scores more
61%
level
20%
Admira Praha II scores more
19%

Meteor Praha at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meteor Praha 2 – 1 Admira Praha II

Meteor Praha beat Admira Praha II 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.