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Admira Praha II vs Meteor Praha — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Meteor Praha
Meteor Praha
8/25/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3Stadion Na Pecích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Admira Praha II40%
×Draw25%
Meteor Praha34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Praha II
1.45
Meteor Praha
1.32

Admira Praha II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 83 away

creates per match

Admira Praha II
1.18
Meteor Praha
1.57

allows per match

Admira Praha II
1.07
Meteor Praha
1.72

finishing

Admira Praha II+0.00on par
Meteor Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Praha II ↓

Meteor Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Admira Praha II or draw
66%
Admira Praha II or Meteor Praha
75%
Draw or Meteor Praha
60%

Winning margin

Admira Praha II wins by 2+
19%
Meteor Praha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Admira Praha II 1+ goals
77%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
42%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
18%
Meteor Praha 1+ goals
73%
Meteor Praha 2+ goals
38%
Meteor Praha 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
54%
Meteor Praha (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Praha II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Meteor Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Praha II attack 1.18 + Meteor Praha defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.45

Meteor Praha attack 1.57 + Admira Praha II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Admira Praha II scores more
40%
level
25%
Meteor Praha scores more
34%

Admira Praha II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Admira Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Admira Praha II 1–4 Meteor Praha

Meteor Praha beat Admira Praha II 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Pecích in Praha.