Meteor Praha U19 1–4 Karviná U19: Result & Stats

Meteor Praha U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Karviná U19

5/7/2022

1. Liga U19 · Round 24Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meteor Praha U1932%

×Draw20%

Karviná U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meteor Praha U19Expected goals in this matchKarviná U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

2.29

Meteor Praha U19

1.86

Karviná U19

2.29

Karviná U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 63 away

1.44

creates per match

1.24

3.33

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Meteor Praha U19

1.44

Karviná U19

1.24

allows per match

Meteor Praha U19

3.33

Karviná U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha U19 ↓

Karviná U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Meteor Praha U19 or draw

52%

Meteor Praha U19 or Karviná U19

80%

Draw or Karviná U19

68%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+

16%

Karviná U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals

84%

Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals

55%

Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals

28%

Karviná U19 1+ goals

90%

Karviná U19 2+ goals

66%

Karviná U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.33 · 18 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha U19 attack 1.44 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Meteor Praha U19 scores more

32%

level

20%

Karviná U19 scores more

48%

Karviná U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff