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Karviná U19 vs Meteor Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Karviná U19
Karviná U19
CANC
10:45
Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
3/27/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 9UMT Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Karviná U1967%
×Draw18%
Meteor Praha U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná U19
2.55
Meteor Praha U19
1.18

Karviná U19 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 18 away

creates per match

Karviná U19
2.16
Meteor Praha U19
0.83

allows per match

Karviná U19
1.52
Meteor Praha U19
2.94

finishing

Karviná U19+0.00on par
Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná U19 ↓

Meteor Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Karviná U19 or draw
84%
Karviná U19 or Meteor Praha U19
82%
Draw or Meteor Praha U19
33%

Winning margin

Karviná U19 wins by 2+
45%
Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karviná U19 1+ goals
92%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
72%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
46%
Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
69%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
33%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

Meteor Praha U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná U19 attack 2.16 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.55

Meteor Praha U19 attack 0.83 + Karviná U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Karviná U19 scores more
67%
level
18%
Meteor Praha U19 scores more
16%

Karviná U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Karviná U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karviná U19 face Meteor Praha U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Karviná U19 hosting Meteor Praha U19. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Karviná U19 host Meteor Praha U19 at UMT Kovona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.