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Meteor Praha U19 vs České Budějovice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
FT
0 – 3
České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
10/8/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 10Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meteor Praha U1927%
×Draw19%
České Budějovice U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha U19
1.79
České Budějovice U19
2.55

České Budějovice U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 80 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha U19
1.44
České Budějovice U19
1.77

allows per match

Meteor Praha U19
3.33
České Budějovice U19
2.15

finishing

Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par
České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Meteor Praha U19 or draw
46%
Meteor Praha U19 or České Budějovice U19
81%
Draw or České Budějovice U19
73%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
13%
České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
83%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
53%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
26%
České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
92%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
72%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
33%
České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.33 · 18 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha U19 attack 1.44 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.79

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Meteor Praha U19 scores more
27%
level
19%
České Budějovice U19 scores more
54%

České Budějovice U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Meteor Praha U19 0–3 České Budějovice U19

České Budějovice U19 beat Meteor Praha U19 3-0 in 1. Liga U19 on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.